July 5 Prediction: Lugo Surges Back, Faces Ross

Photo Credit: Goldstar

 

New York Mets’ Seth Lugo (3-1, 3.55 ERA) has been phenomenal this past month after posting a 3-1 record since recovering from an elbow injury that has sidelined him for the first two months of the season. He will be facing off against a struggling Joe Ross (4-3, 5.12 ERA) from the Washington Nationals’ side as they begin a 3-game series at Nationals Park.

 

Pitchers

Lugo just came off a respectable showing against the Miami Marlins, striking out 4 batters while allowing three runs with only one homer and one walk in 6 innings. Before he got injured, his curveball was his most reliable pitch but it hasn’t been the case last month. Now, he uses fourseams and sinkers more but neither have been effective. His fastball has only whiffed 6.8% of swings while his sinkers have been worse at 3.06%.

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Seth Lugo, Photo Credit: MLB

 

On the other hand, Ross’ last game against the Chicago Cubs was also solid to say the least. He allowed two runs, one homer, and three walks with seven strikeouts. He has been known to use sinkers and sliders quite often throughout his career. Unfortunately, his sinkers have been his worst pitch yet at a 5.07% whiff rate but his slider has been phenomenal with 25.54% of swings ending up in strikes.

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Joe Ross, Photo Credit: MLB

 

Batters

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Washington Nationals’ Batting Lineup, Photo Credit: MLB

 

Among the Nationals’ hitters, Daniel Murphy could give Lugo a run for his money. The infielder has only whiffed on 7% of fastballs throughout his whole career while he’s only missed 3.31% of those last month. He’s currently posting a .334/.390/.570 with a .960 OPS.

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Daniel Murphy, Photo Credit: MLB

 

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New York Mets’ Batting Lineup, Photo Credit: MLB

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For the Mets, T.J. Rivera could potentially be a problem for Ross. New York’s infielder whiffed on only 17% of fastballs for his whole career but going up against breaking pitches might not be ideal for him after whiffing on 32% of those ever since he entered the league.

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T.J. Rivera, Photo Credit: MLB

 

Prediction

Ross and Lugo have both been decent recently but Ross has been allowing more runs than Lugo in some games so far. Plus, New York’s batting lineup for the game has had some success against Ross in general so it wouldn’t farfetched to assume that they would get some runs. While Washington’s batters have had little to no success against Ludo.

Projected Winner: New York Mets

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